It was 60 days in the past that Morgan Rogers found himself on the Stadium of Light pitch, seeming perplexed while the Villa manager admonished him for failing to anticipate a penetrating pass. During that period, with the team went six without a win, doubts remained whether his displays were an indicator or the source of Villa's broader struggles.
“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”
On Sunday, in contrast, the touchline reaction was far more favourable. When Rogers drilled in his second strike to reclaim Villa's lead, Emery tore off his winter coat, spread his arms and bellowed. The Birmingham club were on their way to a tenth straight victory and having failed to win any of their first six matches, now sit just three points behind table-toppers Arsenal.
Are They Serious Challengers?
It remains a rather hard query to answer. History, the traditional standing of the club, indicates otherwise. Additionally, they have not been completely commanding during this run, despite the fact the positive results have stacked up.
According to the data, on just two occasions has the team posted an expected goals figure notably superior than the other team. For a side that have strung together ten consecutive victories, the Villans seem curiously susceptible – however at the moment the fine lines are falling their way.
The Rogers Recipe
The prevailing tactic seems to be to exchange chances with an opponent and wait for their talisman to rescue them with some crisp finishes. This was the case away to Leeds, it happened against West Ham, and it happened versus Manchester United.
Rogers' first goal stemmed from an exquisite effort, bent precisely inside the goal frame from the corner of the box. For his second was essentially a somewhat messier replica of goal number one as he seized on a setup by his strike partner.
“Rogers’ right foot is now akin to Robben’s legendary left: forewarned does not mean forearmed, and stopping him is another matter entirely.”
How Long Can This Continue?
Reason suggests otherwise. In the recent win, the opponents managed a greater number of attempts and more efforts on goal. The team has won each of their last eight by just one goal. They’ve conceded in nearly all of those games.
Regression to the mean might be the biggest rival the club must confront as the season progresses. The forward, almost certainly, cannot keep on thrashing the football into the net's top corner forever.
Reasons for Optimism
Could it be another reality whereby, instead of luck running out, the team's displays improve to justify the wins. Key players might still return to peak condition.
- The centre-forward could start adding to his goal tally.
- The winger might become the player he showed in Germany.
- The defensive duo are due to return from injury, bolstering a sometimes shaky backline.
Maybe within that lies the possibility of a title challenge, but they surely can continue to depend solely on one man.
Enjoying the Ride
However, this is a surprise. Nobody thought Aston Villa would occupy third at Christmas. And most definitely earlier this season, nobody thought Rogers by the end of the year would be spearheading a championship pursuit while looking like a crucial player for the national team.
The current run must be cherished precisely because it seems so surreal. As the match-winner positioned himself before the Villa faithful when the game ended orchestrating the applause, it was clear to be loving the experience. A feeling he has rightly earned. Such periods are uncommon in the sport and must be appreciated.
